Global Shipping Market Dynamics (Mid-May to Late-May)
According to China Customs statistics, in the first four months of this year, our foreign trade data was generally better than expected, with a total import and export value of 13.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year (the same below). Among them, exports were 7.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%; imports were 5.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.02%; trade surplus was 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.7%. The main characteristics of foreign trade import and export: the proportion of general trade import and export has increased and exports to the United States and Japan have declined; the proportion of imports and exports of private enterprises has exceeded 50%; exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products have both increased.
According to the approval of the European Parliament in April this year, the shipping industry will be included in the European Emissions Trading System (ETS), thereby substantially accelerating the process of carbon emission reduction; 2024 will be the first reporting year, and the data collected will become the basis for calculating emission responsibilities , and converted into EU emission allowances (EUA), that is, carbon credits; from September 30, 2025, relevant companies will have to abide by the relevant provisions of the ETS regulations.
China—America
Affected by the weak market volume, the shipping company's short-term freight rate at the end of April will basically be used until mid-May, and the market is still waiting to see whether it will launch a wave of GRl after that. After the May 1st holiday, the market demand is weak, the shipping space is loose, and some shipping companies are short of 20ft.
In the last two weeks, the capacity affected by the suspension of sailings accounted for about 15% of the total capacity. The Panama Canal has entered a dry season, and shipping companies have stricter restrictions on the weight of cargo passing through the Panama Canal to the East of the United States.
China —Latin America
In terms of short-term freight rates, the trends of East of South America and West of South America are very different; West of South America maintains an upward trend, and East of South America prices are expected to drop slightly.
After the market entered mid-May, the order momentum in West of South America was still relatively strong, and the shipping space was tight. It is recommended to book the shipping space 2 weeks in advance; the momentum in East of South America slowed down, and the shipping space was relatively loose.
In the last two weeks, only the East of South American route has a suspension plan, and the affected capacity accounts for about 10% of the overall capacity; some European shipping companies still have tight inventory of 20ft/refrigerated containers.
Argentine imports are plagued by exchange rate issues, and it is expected that the order volume will be affected to a certain extent. Some Chinese export orders to Argentina may be settled in RMB in advance.
China —Europe
In the last two weeks, the three major alliances currently know that the proportion of suspended flights to their total capacity is about:
THE=18%/25%; 2M=15%/15%; 0A=16%/12%;
The space in THE Alliance was tight during May, and it has already reached the second half of the month.
The spot freight rate in the market has no obvious fluctuations, and the success rate of shipping companies pushing up GR is low, and the short-term freight rates of some shipping companies have been extended to the end of May.
China—Mediterranean
In the last two weeks, the suspended capacity of Mediterranean routes accounted for about 9% and 11% of the total capacity respectively.
At present, the Mediterranean route is still stable at a high level, and the overall shipping space is tight. It is recommended to book the shipping space at least 2-3 weeks in advance. The short-term freight rate will remain stable until mid-May.
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